NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMER NAVY
Points 68.1 64.4
Total Points   132.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 18.7
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.2
Shooting AMER NAVY
Field Goals Made 24.2 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 50.0 53.4
Field Goal % 48.5% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 27.4 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 59.9% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 18.7
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.0%
Ball Control AMER NAVY
Rebounds 32.0 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 20.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 10.2
Turnovers 11.2 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.8 1.7
Steals 3.8 4.6
Fouls 16.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Navy

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMER NAVY
Total Possessions 63.7
Effective Scoring Chances 60.6 65.2
% of Possessions with AMER NAVY
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 25.1%
Player Fouled 24.6% 25.3%
Turnover 17.6% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMER NAVY
Shot Blocked 3.2% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 29.9%