NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMER SFPA
Points 70.9 63.2
Total Points   134.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.0 21.8
Points From Free Throws 12.4 10.0
Shooting AMER SFPA
Field Goals Made 25.1 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 51.5
Field Goal % 48.2% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 29.4 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.1% 49.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 12.4 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 16.7
Free Throw % 71.6% 60.1%
Ball Control AMER SFPA
Rebounds 32.3 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 20.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.1
Turnovers 10.1 10.8
Blocked Shots 1.8 2.9
Steals 5.2 4.5
Fouls 14.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMER SFPA
Total Possessions 64.0
Effective Scoring Chances 62.9 62.3
% of Possessions with AMER SFPA
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 26.4%
Player Fouled 24.3% 22.7%
Turnover 15.7% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMER SFPA
Shot Blocked 5.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.1% 27.9%