NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COPP UMBC
Points 62.2 78.0
Total Points   140.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 27.0
Points From Free Throws 10.8 10.8
Shooting COPP UMBC
Field Goals Made 22.7 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.7 59.6
Field Goal % 35.1% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 42.9 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 56.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 27.6% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 10.8 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 15.9
Free Throw % 72.6% 67.9%
Ball Control COPP UMBC
Rebounds 34.8 42.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 32.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.7
Turnovers 11.7 14.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.9
Steals 8.2 5.5
Fouls 14.0 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: Coppin St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COPP UMBC
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 70.1
% of Possessions with COPP UMBC
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 28.4%
Player Fouled 15.7% 18.8%
Turnover 15.8% 18.9%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken COPP UMBC
Shot Blocked 6.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 29.2%