NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EMU MSU
Points 54.9 81.8
Total Points   136.7
Points From 2-Pointers 29.4 46.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 21.4
Points From Free Throws 8.4 13.5
Shooting EMU MSU
Field Goals Made 20.4 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 59.3
Field Goal % 36.7% 51.5%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 41.3% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 8.4 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 18.6
Free Throw % 66.6% 72.5%
Ball Control EMU MSU
Rebounds 28.0 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.4 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.3
Turnovers 11.9 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.2
Steals 4.1 7.4
Fouls 14.9 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EMU MSU
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.0 71.0
% of Possessions with EMU MSU
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 24.4%
Player Fouled 18.3% 22.1%
Turnover 17.7% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken EMU MSU
Shot Blocked 7.2% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 35.6%