NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU RICH
Points 61.5 76.3
Total Points   137.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.0 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 22.7
Points From Free Throws 12.4 14.0
Shooting NCCU RICH
Field Goals Made 21.4 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 54.6
Field Goal % 37.7% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 41.0% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 12.4 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 19.6
Free Throw % 69.0% 71.6%
Ball Control NCCU RICH
Rebounds 33.9 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 5.9
Turnovers 10.1 8.0
Blocked Shots 1.4 3.3
Steals 4.1 4.8
Fouls 15.8 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC Central

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU RICH
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 66.4
% of Possessions with NCCU RICH
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 29.1%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.0%
Turnover 14.8% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU RICH
Shot Blocked 6.1% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 19.4%