NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MORE MRSH
Points 74.5 65.7
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 29.5 20.1
Points From Free Throws 12.1 11.6
Shooting MORE MRSH
Field Goals Made 26.3 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 61.4
Field Goal % 44.9% 38.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 43.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 12.1 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 16.2
Free Throw % 73.2% 71.7%
Ball Control MORE MRSH
Rebounds 40.5 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.3 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.8
Turnovers 11.5 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.3
Steals 5.5 6.5
Fouls 13.3 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORE MRSH
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 71.3
% of Possessions with MORE MRSH
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 27.3%
Player Fouled 18.7% 19.0%
Turnover 16.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORE MRSH
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 24.5%