NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIN UALR
Points 72.1 76.5
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 28.3 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 20.8
Points From Free Throws 20.8 13.5
Shooting WIN UALR
Field Goals Made 21.8 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 59.4
Field Goal % 41.4% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 29.8 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 20.8 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 30.0 18.5
Free Throw % 69.3% 73.1%
Ball Control WIN UALR
Rebounds 32.7 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.7
Turnovers 12.1 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 6.0
Steals 5.0 5.5
Fouls 14.9 19.9

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIN UALR
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 71.7
% of Possessions with WIN UALR
2 Point Attempt 35.2% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 24.9%
Player Fouled 27.5% 20.6%
Turnover 16.8% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIN UALR
Shot Blocked 10.3% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 34.1%