NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAS STJOE
Points 69.8 79.7
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 27.3
Points From Free Throws 9.6 13.4
Shooting LAS STJOE
Field Goals Made 25.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 60.9
Field Goal % 40.9% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 24.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 9.6 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.5 18.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.9%
Ball Control LAS STJOE
Rebounds 34.2 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 10.5
Turnovers 9.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.1
Steals 5.7 5.2
Fouls 14.1 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAS STJOE
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 72.0
% of Possessions with LAS STJOE
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 29.2%
Player Fouled 16.9% 20.0%
Turnover 13.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAS STJOE
Shot Blocked 6.8% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 29.9%