NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAS GMU
Points 65.1 72.7
Total Points   137.8
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.1 18.6
Points From Free Throws 10.0 15.9
Shooting LAS GMU
Field Goals Made 23.2 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 54.8
Field Goal % 39.3% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 10.0 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 21.5
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.1%
Ball Control LAS GMU
Rebounds 31.2 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.2
Turnovers 8.6 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.2
Steals 5.6 4.1
Fouls 15.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAS GMU
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 67.8
% of Possessions with LAS GMU
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 32.2% 21.9%
Player Fouled 19.8% 23.4%
Turnover 12.8% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAS GMU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 31.5%