NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU WMU
Points 73.7 72.2
Total Points   145.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 24.2
Points From Free Throws 16.2 10.5
Shooting BGSU WMU
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 59.5
Field Goal % 42.6% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 16.2 10.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 17.1
Free Throw % 72.7% 61.5%
Ball Control BGSU WMU
Rebounds 37.2 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 10.7
Turnovers 9.1 11.5
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.2
Steals 6.2 4.3
Fouls 14.6 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU WMU
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 70.9
% of Possessions with BGSU WMU
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 26.1%
Player Fouled 21.9% 20.4%
Turnover 12.7% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU WMU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 29.2%