NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU BUFF
Points 76.2 70.4
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 21.4
Points From Free Throws 15.2 9.8
Shooting BGSU BUFF
Field Goals Made 27.4 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 59.8
Field Goal % 42.9% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 15.2 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 13.6
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.6%
Ball Control BGSU BUFF
Rebounds 40.2 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 7.6
Turnovers 9.1 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.9
Steals 6.5 5.2
Fouls 12.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU BUFF
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 76.2 68.3
% of Possessions with BGSU BUFF
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 27.4%
Player Fouled 19.2% 16.7%
Turnover 12.5% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU BUFF
Shot Blocked 8.4% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 21.7%