NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA MONT
Points 70.0 73.9
Total Points   143.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 24.0
Points From Free Throws 11.9 14.4
Shooting AFA MONT
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 51.5
Field Goal % 47.9% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 11.9 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 18.0
Free Throw % 68.7% 80.1%
Ball Control AFA MONT
Rebounds 27.9 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.6 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 6.9
Turnovers 8.6 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.7
Steals 5.8 3.8
Fouls 14.9 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA MONT
Total Possessions 64.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 62.0
% of Possessions with AFA MONT
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 27.8%
Player Fouled 22.7% 23.0%
Turnover 13.3% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA MONT
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 25.0%