NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU NIU
Points 74.8 73.5
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 23.0
Points From Free Throws 18.3 12.9
Shooting BGSU NIU
Field Goals Made 25.1 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 57.4
Field Goal % 41.5% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 18.3 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 19.1
Free Throw % 72.7% 67.4%
Ball Control BGSU NIU
Rebounds 38.1 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 8.2
Turnovers 8.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.1
Steals 6.1 4.0
Fouls 16.1 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU NIU
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 69.3
% of Possessions with BGSU NIU
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 25.5%
Player Fouled 21.9% 22.3%
Turnover 12.3% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU NIU
Shot Blocked 8.9% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.4% 23.7%