NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU APP
Points 64.1 80.5
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 49.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 20.4
Points From Free Throws 11.7 10.9
Shooting BGSU APP
Field Goals Made 23.5 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 66.6 62.7
Field Goal % 35.3% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 24.6
2 Pointers Attempted 47.3 45.1
2 Point Shooting % 38.4% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 27.6% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 11.7 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 15.6
Free Throw % 72.7% 69.5%
Ball Control BGSU APP
Rebounds 36.7 41.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 33.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.7
Turnovers 9.0 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 6.8
Steals 5.9 5.2
Fouls 13.3 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU APP
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 72.3
% of Possessions with BGSU APP
2 Point Attempt 54.4% 54.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 21.3%
Player Fouled 16.9% 18.2%
Turnover 12.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU APP
Shot Blocked 10.9% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 25.5%