NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA DEN
Points 78.7 74.1
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 28.3 25.3
Points From Free Throws 12.0 16.5
Shooting AFA DEN
Field Goals Made 28.6 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 54.1
Field Goal % 51.5% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 59.6% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 40.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 12.0 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 23.3
Free Throw % 68.7% 70.7%
Ball Control AFA DEN
Rebounds 31.5 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 9.0
Turnovers 9.9 9.7
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.4
Steals 5.2 5.1
Fouls 16.3 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA DEN
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 67.6
% of Possessions with AFA DEN
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 28.4%
Player Fouled 22.7% 23.8%
Turnover 14.4% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA DEN
Shot Blocked 6.4% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 27.3%