NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA CSU
Points 60.3 74.6
Total Points   135.0
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 20.4
Points From Free Throws 10.2 15.9
Shooting AFA CSU
Field Goals Made 21.4 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 51.0 49.0
Field Goal % 41.9% 52.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 29.1 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 62.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 10.2 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 21.3
Free Throw % 68.7% 74.7%
Ball Control AFA CSU
Rebounds 26.2 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 19.1 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 7.0
Turnovers 11.0 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.9
Steals 5.0 5.2
Fouls 16.6 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA CSU
Total Possessions 64.0
Effective Scoring Chances 60.0 61.8
% of Possessions with AFA CSU
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 25.3%
Player Fouled 22.8% 25.9%
Turnover 17.2% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA CSU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 27.0%