NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA SJSU
Points 70.8 69.2
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.5 24.7
Points From Free Throws 11.1 10.1
Shooting AFA SJSU
Field Goals Made 25.0 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.3 52.7
Field Goal % 48.6% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 27.7 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 41.6% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 11.1 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 14.8
Free Throw % 68.7% 68.6%
Ball Control AFA SJSU
Rebounds 30.2 28.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 6.7
Turnovers 10.2 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.1
Steals 4.6 4.4
Fouls 13.5 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA SJSU
Total Possessions 64.0
Effective Scoring Chances 61.0 61.4
% of Possessions with AFA SJSU
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 29.9%
Player Fouled 22.5% 21.1%
Turnover 16.0% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA SJSU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 22.6%