NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UND NDSU
Points 75.4 72.4
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.4 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 20.2
Points From Free Throws 12.5 11.9
Shooting UND NDSU
Field Goals Made 27.9 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 56.0
Field Goal % 47.1% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 12.5 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 16.0
Free Throw % 71.7% 74.1%
Ball Control UND NDSU
Rebounds 33.5 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 6.7
Turnovers 7.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.0
Steals 5.7 3.5
Fouls 13.9 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UND NDSU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 65.3
% of Possessions with UND NDSU
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 23.0%
Player Fouled 20.2% 20.2%
Turnover 11.1% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UND NDSU
Shot Blocked 1.8% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 21.5%