NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UND GONZ
Points 64.9 86.8
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 56.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 17.8
Points From Free Throws 11.3 12.8
Shooting UND GONZ
Field Goals Made 22.8 34.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 61.0
Field Goal % 36.9% 55.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 28.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 45.5
2 Point Shooting % 40.5% 61.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 11.3 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 17.3
Free Throw % 71.7% 73.6%
Ball Control UND GONZ
Rebounds 30.9 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 19.9 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.8
Turnovers 9.1 7.6
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.4
Steals 4.5 6.1
Fouls 13.4 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: North Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UND GONZ
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 71.7
% of Possessions with UND GONZ
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 56.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 19.4%
Player Fouled 19.7% 19.3%
Turnover 13.1% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UND GONZ
Shot Blocked 5.6% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 32.9%