NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UND VALP
Points 72.2 69.0
Total Points   141.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 20.5
Points From Free Throws 12.8 9.6
Shooting UND VALP
Field Goals Made 26.0 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 60.8
Field Goal % 43.6% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 12.8 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 13.6
Free Throw % 71.7% 70.2%
Ball Control UND VALP
Rebounds 39.4 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 8.7
Turnovers 9.9 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.8
Steals 5.6 5.4
Fouls 12.4 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: North Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UND VALP
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 69.3
% of Possessions with UND VALP
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 24.7%
Player Fouled 20.9% 17.9%
Turnover 14.2% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UND VALP
Shot Blocked 4.6% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 23.6%