NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL BAY
Points 81.4 79.7
Total Points   161.2
Points From 2-Pointers 41.4 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 21.5
Points From Free Throws 17.0 15.0
Shooting ILL BAY
Field Goals Made 28.4 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 61.2
Field Goal % 48.8% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 17.0 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 20.5
Free Throw % 73.8% 73.1%
Ball Control ILL BAY
Rebounds 34.6 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.4
Turnovers 8.5 7.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.6
Steals 4.3 4.9
Fouls 14.6 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL BAY
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 73.3
% of Possessions with ILL BAY
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 22.3%
Player Fouled 23.8% 20.5%
Turnover 12.0% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL BAY
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 29.4%