NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL MSU
Points 75.4 72.8
Total Points   148.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 44.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 17.0
Points From Free Throws 16.0 11.5
Shooting ILL MSU
Field Goals Made 25.5 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 63.4
Field Goal % 43.8% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 48.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 46.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 16.0 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 15.9
Free Throw % 73.8% 72.5%
Ball Control ILL MSU
Rebounds 38.7 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.0
Turnovers 9.2 6.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.4
Steals 3.4 5.3
Fouls 13.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL MSU
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 72.7
% of Possessions with ILL MSU
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 59.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 18.9%
Player Fouled 22.8% 18.7%
Turnover 13.3% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL MSU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 26.5%