NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL MD
Points 76.2 69.3
Total Points   145.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 15.3
Points From Free Throws 18.1 14.8
Shooting ILL MD
Field Goals Made 25.9 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 60.7
Field Goal % 44.4% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 43.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 18.1 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 20.2
Free Throw % 73.8% 73.1%
Ball Control ILL MD
Rebounds 40.6 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 10.2
Turnovers 9.2 8.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.7
Steals 3.8 4.6
Fouls 14.6 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL MD
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 72.6
% of Possessions with ILL MD
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 21.1%
Player Fouled 24.3% 20.7%
Turnover 13.1% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL MD
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 26.4%