NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL NW
Points 81.1 73.3
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 21.1
Points From Free Throws 18.6 12.3
Shooting ILL NW
Field Goals Made 27.4 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 61.8
Field Goal % 50.4% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 44.2
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 39.8%
Free Throws Made 18.6 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 16.3
Free Throw % 73.8% 75.6%
Ball Control ILL NW
Rebounds 38.0 29.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 7.7
Turnovers 9.1 6.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.9
Steals 3.4 5.2
Fouls 13.7 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL NW
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 70.8
% of Possessions with ILL NW
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 56.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 22.4%
Player Fouled 24.2% 19.8%
Turnover 13.0% 9.1%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL NW
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 21.1%