NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL MICH
Points 88.1 73.0
Total Points   161.1
Points From 2-Pointers 46.8 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 19.3
Points From Free Throws 17.1 12.5
Shooting ILL MICH
Field Goals Made 31.5 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.9 62.4
Field Goal % 50.0% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 23.4 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 44.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 17.1 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 17.7
Free Throw % 73.8% 70.8%
Ball Control ILL MICH
Rebounds 40.5 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 9.6
Turnovers 7.3 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.9
Steals 5.0 3.3
Fouls 13.6 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL MICH
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.9 72.8
% of Possessions with ILL MICH
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 53.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 21.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 18.9%
Turnover 10.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 4.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL MICH
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 34.8% 25.2%