NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ND HOW
Points 76.6 65.5
Total Points   142.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 20.6
Points From Free Throws 15.8 14.2
Shooting ND HOW
Field Goals Made 26.0 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 54.7
Field Goal % 48.0% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.8 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 18.7
Free Throw % 73.7% 76.0%
Ball Control ND HOW
Rebounds 34.4 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.4
Turnovers 10.1 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.7
Steals 6.1 4.9
Fouls 14.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Howard

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ND HOW
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 66.3
% of Possessions with ND HOW
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 25.7%
Player Fouled 23.2% 20.9%
Turnover 14.8% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ND HOW
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 26.9%