NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ND LOU
Points 72.2 67.0
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 14.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 14.7
Shooting ND LOU
Field Goals Made 24.6 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 55.0
Field Goal % 45.9% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 29.2 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 14.0 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 19.9
Free Throw % 73.7% 74.2%
Ball Control ND LOU
Rebounds 33.8 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.5
Turnovers 11.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.1
Steals 6.4 5.4
Fouls 15.5 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ND LOU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 67.2
% of Possessions with ND LOU
2 Point Attempt 37.3% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 21.6%
Player Fouled 20.9% 22.5%
Turnover 17.1% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ND LOU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 24.9%