NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ND UVA
Points 54.3 60.4
Total Points   114.7
Points From 2-Pointers 23.3 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 17.4
Points From Free Throws 9.3 8.1
Shooting ND UVA
Field Goals Made 18.9 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 56.8
Field Goal % 35.8% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 11.7 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 28.3 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.2% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 9.3 8.1
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 13.1
Free Throw % 73.7% 62.1%
Ball Control ND UVA
Rebounds 37.1 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 8.4
Turnovers 11.8 6.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 6.1
Steals 4.1 6.4
Fouls 11.0 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ND UVA
Total Possessions 62.5
Effective Scoring Chances 60.0 64.6
% of Possessions with ND UVA
2 Point Attempt 38.1% 53.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 25.2%
Player Fouled 17.7% 17.5%
Turnover 18.8% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ND UVA
Shot Blocked 10.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 23.2%