NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ND ILL
Points 67.3 80.0
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 22.5
Points From Free Throws 11.1 16.1
Shooting ND ILL
Field Goals Made 24.6 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 59.7
Field Goal % 40.4% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.3% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 11.1 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 21.4
Free Throw % 73.7% 74.9%
Ball Control ND ILL
Rebounds 32.0 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.9
Turnovers 8.5 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.2
Steals 4.2 4.1
Fouls 15.0 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Notre Dame

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ND ILL
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 73.1
% of Possessions with ND ILL
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 27.8%
Player Fouled 17.3% 21.8%
Turnover 12.4% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ND ILL
Shot Blocked 7.0% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 34.3%