NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ND MSU
Points 59.4 69.6
Total Points   129.0
Points From 2-Pointers 23.6 39.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 18.5
Points From Free Throws 11.1 11.4
Shooting ND MSU
Field Goals Made 20.0 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 58.1
Field Goal % 38.0% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 11.8 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 27.6 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.7% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 11.1 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 15.8
Free Throw % 73.7% 72.5%
Ball Control ND MSU
Rebounds 32.6 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 10.1
Turnovers 12.3 7.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.6
Steals 4.4 6.6
Fouls 13.5 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ND MSU
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 61.7 67.9
% of Possessions with ND MSU
2 Point Attempt 36.4% 52.0%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 23.7%
Player Fouled 19.9% 20.6%
Turnover 18.7% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ND MSU
Shot Blocked 8.0% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 29.2%