NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LIB MSST
Points 64.3 77.9
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 29.2 47.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 18.3
Points From Free Throws 8.7 12.3
Shooting LIB MSST
Field Goals Made 23.4 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 55.1
Field Goal % 41.8% 54.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 26.9 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 64.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 29.2 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 8.7 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 18.7
Free Throw % 64.5% 65.5%
Ball Control LIB MSST
Rebounds 26.9 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 8.9
Turnovers 11.3 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.6
Steals 4.5 6.7
Fouls 15.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LIB MSST
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 67.0
% of Possessions with LIB MSST
2 Point Attempt 35.0% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 38.1% 23.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 22.0%
Turnover 16.5% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LIB MSST
Shot Blocked 6.6% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 18.8% 30.5%