NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY SLU
Points 83.9 69.4
Total Points   153.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 33.4 24.9
Points From Free Throws 16.4 10.5
Shooting DAY SLU
Field Goals Made 28.2 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 58.2
Field Goal % 51.4% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 28.5 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 42.4% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 16.4 10.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 14.1
Free Throw % 74.7% 75.1%
Ball Control DAY SLU
Rebounds 33.9 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 7.9
Turnovers 7.8 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.7
Steals 5.4 4.6
Fouls 12.6 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY SLU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 66.3
% of Possessions with DAY SLU
2 Point Attempt 37.2% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.3% 31.2%
Player Fouled 23.3% 18.4%
Turnover 11.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY SLU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 23.0%