NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY SBON
Points 73.2 67.7
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 23.7
Points From Free Throws 14.6 9.6
Shooting DAY SBON
Field Goals Made 24.6 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.6 58.2
Field Goal % 47.6% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 27.8 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.7% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.6 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 12.5
Free Throw % 74.7% 77.3%
Ball Control DAY SBON
Rebounds 32.8 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 8.7
Turnovers 10.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.5
Steals 4.1 5.3
Fouls 11.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY SBON
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.1 65.9
% of Possessions with DAY SBON
2 Point Attempt 37.2% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 31.1%
Player Fouled 22.7% 17.1%
Turnover 15.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY SBON
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 25.3%