NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY GW
Points 82.1 68.2
Total Points   150.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 33.0 27.7
Points From Free Throws 12.5 9.8
Shooting DAY GW
Field Goals Made 29.3 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 59.9
Field Goal % 48.2% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 27.8
3 Point Shooting % 42.0% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 12.5 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 13.0
Free Throw % 74.7% 75.4%
Ball Control DAY GW
Rebounds 37.6 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 7.4
Turnovers 7.7 9.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.4
Steals 5.4 4.6
Fouls 11.1 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY GW
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.4
% of Possessions with DAY GW
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 35.2%
Player Fouled 18.7% 15.8%
Turnover 11.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY GW
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 20.3%