NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY DUQ
Points 69.5 64.3
Total Points   133.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 22.7
Points From Free Throws 14.8 8.9
Shooting DAY DUQ
Field Goals Made 23.5 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.4 58.0
Field Goal % 45.7% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 29.9 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 14.8 8.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 12.1
Free Throw % 74.7% 73.4%
Ball Control DAY DUQ
Rebounds 34.1 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 8.9
Turnovers 10.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.1
Steals 5.2 6.1
Fouls 11.9 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY DUQ
Total Possessions 66.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.0 65.3
% of Possessions with DAY DUQ
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 31.7%
Player Fouled 22.9% 18.0%
Turnover 16.0% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY DUQ
Shot Blocked 7.2% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 25.2%