NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY SMC
Points 64.5 69.2
Total Points   133.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 23.2
Points From Free Throws 14.2 7.9
Shooting DAY SMC
Field Goals Made 21.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 49.7 60.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.2 7.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 11.7
Free Throw % 74.7% 67.1%
Ball Control DAY SMC
Rebounds 28.2 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 4.7 11.8
Turnovers 8.9 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.7
Steals 4.4 5.5
Fouls 11.2 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY SMC
Total Possessions 64.5
Effective Scoring Chances 60.3 67.7
% of Possessions with DAY SMC
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 30.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 17.3%
Turnover 13.8% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY SMC
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 15.6% 33.4%