NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY STJOE
Points 75.2 69.6
Total Points   144.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 29.3 30.4
Points From Free Throws 13.2 8.3
Shooting DAY STJOE
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 61.0
Field Goal % 46.6% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.3 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 31.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 13.2 8.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 11.6
Free Throw % 74.7% 71.9%
Ball Control DAY STJOE
Rebounds 35.6 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 9.2
Turnovers 9.6 9.5
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.4
Steals 5.4 5.7
Fouls 11.3 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY STJOE
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 67.8
% of Possessions with DAY STJOE
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 37.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 39.4%
Player Fouled 19.6% 16.7%
Turnover 14.2% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY STJOE
Shot Blocked 5.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 25.1%