NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY MIA
Points 77.3 69.5
Total Points   146.8
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 37.7 27.8
Points From Free Throws 10.9 7.3
Shooting DAY MIA
Field Goals Made 26.9 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 61.9
Field Goal % 46.4% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 26.2 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 31.9 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 10.9 7.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 10.2
Free Throw % 74.7% 71.6%
Ball Control DAY MIA
Rebounds 35.6 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.0
Turnovers 9.7 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.8
Steals 5.6 5.8
Fouls 10.8 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY MIA
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 68.1
% of Possessions with DAY MIA
2 Point Attempt 33.7% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 41.0% 34.7%
Player Fouled 16.8% 15.7%
Turnover 14.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 24.6%