NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY SMU
Points 75.7 69.3
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 28.1 22.0
Points From Free Throws 14.8 9.0
Shooting DAY SMU
Field Goals Made 25.8 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 65.0
Field Goal % 47.5% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.9 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.0% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 40.1% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 14.8 9.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 13.2
Free Throw % 74.7% 68.6%
Ball Control DAY SMU
Rebounds 35.1 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 13.3
Turnovers 10.5 8.6
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.5
Steals 5.1 6.6
Fouls 10.8 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY SMU
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 72.8
% of Possessions with DAY SMU
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 28.6%
Player Fouled 22.1% 15.8%
Turnover 15.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY SMU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 33.1%