NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY GMU
Points 70.6 64.2
Total Points   134.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.2 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 21.0
Points From Free Throws 13.7 9.9
Shooting DAY GMU
Field Goals Made 23.5 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 55.5
Field Goal % 45.0% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 27.3 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.8% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 13.7 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 13.4
Free Throw % 74.7% 74.1%
Ball Control DAY GMU
Rebounds 32.1 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 8.9
Turnovers 9.0 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.7
Steals 5.4 4.5
Fouls 12.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY GMU
Total Possessions 64.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 63.6
% of Possessions with DAY GMU
2 Point Attempt 37.2% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 29.9%
Player Fouled 23.0% 19.5%
Turnover 14.0% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY GMU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 26.6%