NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY VCU
Points 67.2 65.5
Total Points   132.7
Points From 2-Pointers 27.4 29.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 26.6
Points From Free Throws 14.8 9.8
Shooting DAY VCU
Field Goals Made 22.0 23.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.4 56.4
Field Goal % 42.0% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 28.8 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 26.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.8 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 12.7
Free Throw % 74.7% 77.2%
Ball Control DAY VCU
Rebounds 33.7 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 8.3
Turnovers 9.4 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.7
Steals 5.4 5.5
Fouls 11.8 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY VCU
Total Possessions 65.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 64.4
% of Possessions with DAY VCU
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 35.4%
Player Fouled 22.2% 17.9%
Turnover 14.3% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY VCU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 24.1%