NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY RICH
Points 70.0 65.4
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.8 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 28.0 22.4
Points From Free Throws 12.2 7.9
Shooting DAY RICH
Field Goals Made 24.3 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 57.1
Field Goal % 44.3% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 30.1 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 12.2 7.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 11.0
Free Throw % 74.7% 71.6%
Ball Control DAY RICH
Rebounds 36.2 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 4.8
Turnovers 9.2 7.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.5
Steals 4.0 5.0
Fouls 11.5 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY RICH
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 63.3
% of Possessions with DAY RICH
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 30.4%
Player Fouled 19.2% 17.3%
Turnover 13.8% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY RICH
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 14.4%