NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PROV TCU
Points 71.2 70.2
Total Points   141.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 17.8
Points From Free Throws 15.5 14.3
Shooting PROV TCU
Field Goals Made 24.1 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 61.9
Field Goal % 45.1% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 29.9 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.6% 41.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 15.5 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 19.7
Free Throw % 74.5% 72.7%
Ball Control PROV TCU
Rebounds 35.1 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 12.1
Turnovers 13.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.3
Steals 5.6 8.5
Fouls 14.6 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PROV TCU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 73.9
% of Possessions with PROV TCU
2 Point Attempt 36.7% 53.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 18.7%
Player Fouled 22.7% 20.1%
Turnover 19.1% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PROV TCU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 30.6%