NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PROV XAV
Points 74.8 70.0
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 18.5
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.0
Shooting PROV XAV
Field Goals Made 26.5 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 61.3
Field Goal % 45.0% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 43.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 41.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.8
Free Throw % 74.5% 75.8%
Ball Control PROV XAV
Rebounds 37.3 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 10.3
Turnovers 10.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 5.4 2.7
Steals 5.6 6.6
Fouls 15.4 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PROV XAV
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 72.7
% of Possessions with PROV XAV
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 20.7%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.1%
Turnover 15.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PROV XAV
Shot Blocked 4.6% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 26.3%