NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PROV SJU
Points 69.6 71.9
Total Points   141.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 18.2
Points From Free Throws 15.9 13.7
Shooting PROV SJU
Field Goals Made 23.0 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 63.1
Field Goal % 41.3% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 44.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 15.9 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 18.4
Free Throw % 74.5% 74.2%
Ball Control PROV SJU
Rebounds 35.7 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.0
Turnovers 12.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.8
Steals 5.7 6.5
Fouls 13.8 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PROV SJU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 74.8
% of Possessions with PROV SJU
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 52.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 21.2%
Player Fouled 24.0% 19.4%
Turnover 17.0% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PROV SJU
Shot Blocked 7.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 33.0%