NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PROV VILL
Points 66.1 66.2
Total Points   132.3
Points From 2-Pointers 26.4 28.9
Points From 3-Pointers 28.6 25.4
Points From Free Throws 11.1 11.9
Shooting PROV VILL
Field Goals Made 22.7 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 57.4
Field Goal % 40.7% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 14.4
2 Pointers Attempted 25.4 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 44.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 11.1 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 14.9
Free Throw % 74.5% 79.7%
Ball Control PROV VILL
Rebounds 36.0 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 6.7
Turnovers 10.2 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.2
Steals 5.3 5.7
Fouls 12.9 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PROV VILL
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 65.7
% of Possessions with PROV VILL
2 Point Attempt 33.3% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 40.0% 32.3%
Player Fouled 21.5% 18.9%
Turnover 15.0% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PROV VILL
Shot Blocked 3.8% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 19.0%