NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC SCU
Points 73.3 62.7
Total Points   136.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 16.1
Points From Free Throws 13.7 12.6
Shooting SMC SCU
Field Goals Made 26.4 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 53.5
Field Goal % 44.9% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 13.7 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 18.1
Free Throw % 67.1% 69.6%
Ball Control SMC SCU
Rebounds 38.4 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 7.3
Turnovers 8.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.2
Steals 6.6 3.7
Fouls 16.1 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC SCU
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 64.4
% of Possessions with SMC SCU
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 21.4%
Player Fouled 22.7% 23.6%
Turnover 11.7% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC SCU
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 21.5%