NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC GONZ
Points 71.1 69.6
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 42.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 13.9
Points From Free Throws 10.1 13.1
Shooting SMC GONZ
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 55.2
Field Goal % 42.8% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 42.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 13.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 10.1 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 17.7
Free Throw % 67.1% 73.6%
Ball Control SMC GONZ
Rebounds 38.3 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 6.8
Turnovers 8.6 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.2
Steals 5.0 5.0
Fouls 14.7 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC GONZ
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 65.5
% of Possessions with SMC GONZ
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 56.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 17.6%
Player Fouled 19.0% 22.1%
Turnover 12.9% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC GONZ
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 35.3% 21.5%