NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC BYU
Points 70.5 69.2
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 23.0
Points From Free Throws 11.6 12.1
Shooting SMC BYU
Field Goals Made 26.1 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 56.6
Field Goal % 45.0% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 11.6 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 16.7
Free Throw % 67.1% 72.5%
Ball Control SMC BYU
Rebounds 37.1 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 6.9
Turnovers 8.9 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.6
Steals 5.3 4.5
Fouls 14.3 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: BYU

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC BYU
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 66.4
% of Possessions with SMC BYU
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 29.5%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.1%
Turnover 13.2% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC BYU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 20.1%