NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC CAL
Points 76.0 63.5
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 18.1
Points From Free Throws 12.3 13.5
Shooting SMC CAL
Field Goals Made 27.9 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 56.0
Field Goal % 45.9% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 12.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 18.4
Free Throw % 67.1% 73.2%
Ball Control SMC CAL
Rebounds 41.6 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 6.6
Turnovers 8.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.4
Steals 5.4 4.8
Fouls 15.1 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC CAL
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 66.5
% of Possessions with SMC CAL
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 23.8%
Player Fouled 19.9% 21.9%
Turnover 12.5% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC CAL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 18.1%